A moderate supply pipeline will be a good test for rents in the coming quarters. Investor and developer confidence in the region should keep speculative projects flowing into the market at a steady clip, though this rate has slowed slightly from the construction-heavy stretch of the mid-to late-2010s. Coupled with strong absorption figures, these factors will likely give landlords pricing power and leverage on lease rates in the near- to mid-term.
Rent growth varies across Portland industrial submarkets, though every industrial hub posted solid growth over the past year. Well-located submarkets with access to the Columbia River and the Willamette River tend to do well, including Hayden Island/Swan Island, East Columbia Corridor, and Rivergate. Lower-performing submarkets generally have a limited industrial footprint and are located farther from Portland's key logistics nodes around the Columbia River.
There is currently approximately 5.0 million SF of industrial product underway, which will expand existing inventory by 2.1%. However, a notable percentage of this new industrial development is destined for owner-occupancy.
The pandemic barely impacted a decades-long run-up in sale pricing. Prices for Portland industrial assets more than doubled over the past decade, spiking from around $65/SF in 2010 to $156/SF today, and average cap rates compressed below 6%. (Source: CoStar)